SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gremio | Draw | Cruzeiro |
40.75% ( -3.48) | 24.85% ( 0.98) | 34.39% ( 2.51) |
| Both teams to score 57.94% ( -2.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.72% ( -3.77) | 45.28% ( 3.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.38% ( -3.71) | 67.62% ( 3.71) |
| Gremio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.83% ( -3.15) | 22.17% ( 3.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.43% ( -4.99) | 55.57% ( 4.99) |
| Cruzeiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.44% ( -0.31) | 25.56% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.58% ( -0.43) | 60.42% ( 0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gremio | Draw | Cruzeiro |
| 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.33) 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.57)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.19)3-1 @ 4.4% ( -0.63)3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.43)3-2 @ 3% ( -0.46)4-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.43)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.3)4-2 @ 1.13% ( -0.31)Other @ 2.38% Total : 40.76% | 1-1 @ 11.64% ( 0.68) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 5.67% ( 0.87)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.23)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.85% | 1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.39) 0-1 @ 7.73% ( 1.12)0-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.73)1-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.31)1-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.55% Total : 34.39% |
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