While Atletico Mineiro have the home advantage in this match, Gremio have been churning out results recently, particularly on the road, where they are unbeaten in five games.
We are expecting a few goals in this match, but feel there will be nothing to split these sides two at the final whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 51.59%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 22.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.2%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
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