Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 49.05%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (8.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
0.08) 
-0.06) 
