Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 56.04%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Bahia had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Bahia win it was 0-1 (7.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.