Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Santos had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
