Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 49.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 23.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.