Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 51.19%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 0-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
