We expect to see a highly entertaining, high-scoring affair between two attacking teams on Saturday. Both meetings saw seven goals scored at either end last season, but we expect the hosts to just edge it having looked more ready for the new season in the DFB-Pokal last weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.68%) and 1-0 (5.12%). The likeliest Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
45.96% ( 1.28)	21.44% ( -0.3)	32.6% ( -0.98)

Both teams to score 70.11% (

0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

70.86% (

1.15)

29.14% (

-1.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

49.86% (

1.39)

50.14% (

-1.39)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.46% (

0.87)

13.54% (

-0.87)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.39% (

1.72)

40.61% (

-1.72)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.09% (

0.06)

18.91% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.6% (

0.1)

50.4% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Borussia Dortmund 45.96%

Bayer Leverkusen 32.6%

Draw 21.44%

Borussia Dortmund	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.52% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.68% ( 0.18) 1-0 @ 5.12% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.15) 4-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.1) 4-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.09) 5-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.1) 5-2 @ 0.95% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.07% Total : 45.96%	1-1 @ 8.53% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 2.56% ( -0.17) Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.44%	1-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.22) 0-1 @ 4.26% ( -0.28) 1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.23) 0-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 3-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.45% Total : 32.6%