SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 63%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 16.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (4.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Koln | Draw | Augsburg |
63% ( 0.78) | 20.74% ( -0) | 16.26% ( -0.79) |
| Both teams to score 51.94% ( -1.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.13% ( -1.44) | 43.87% ( 1.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.74% ( -1.42) | 66.26% ( 1.42) |
| FC Koln Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.7% ( -0.22) | 13.3% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.87% ( -0.44) | 40.13% ( 0.44) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.91% ( -1.83) | 40.09% ( 1.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.27% ( -1.72) | 76.73% ( 1.71) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Koln | Draw | Augsburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.85% ( 0.5) 1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.58)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.36% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.19)4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.36% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.04% Total : 63% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.25)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.74% | 0-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.14)Other @ 1.91% Total : 16.26% |
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