We expect a comfortable victory on home soil for Leipzig, whose fans will be buoyed by the return of Werner following his £25m move from Chelsea.
Koln are a massively improved outfit under Baumgart but they were helped by Schalke's early dismissal last weekend, with Leipzig likely to have too much firepower for them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
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