We expect a comfortable victory on home soil for Leipzig, whose fans will be buoyed by the return of Werner following his £25m move from Chelsea. Koln are a massively improved outfit under Baumgart but they were helped by Schalke's early dismissal last weekend, with Leipzig likely to have too much firepower for them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.62%) and 2-0 (6.4%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	FC Koln
43.93% ( -0.13)	23.66% ( -0.04)	32.41% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 61.56% (

0.22)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.73% (

0.26)

40.27% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.36% (

0.27)

62.64% (

-0.27)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.35% (

0.05)

18.64% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.04% (

0.09)

49.96% (

-0.09)

FC Koln Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.67% (

0.23)

24.33% (

-0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.28% (

0.32)

58.72% (

-0.32)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 43.93%

FC Koln 32.41%

Draw 23.66%

RB Leipzig	Draw	FC Koln
2-1 @ 9.04% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.06% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.51% Total : 43.93%	1-1 @ 10.77% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.66%	1-2 @ 7.61% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.41% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.53% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.79% Total : 32.41%