Putting five goals past a fifth-tier side is hardly a good indication as to how well Schalke will fare back in the Bundesliga, but Koln's confidence will have been rocked by their own DFB-Pokal exit. The injuries to Baumgart's attacking options are not letting up either, but we still have faith in a Modeste-led Billy Goats side to shade a close contest in front of their own fans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.19%) and 2-0 (5.81%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 1-2 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Koln would win this match.

Result
FC Koln	Draw	Schalke 04
40.67% ( 3.3)	23.76% ( 0.07)	35.57% ( -3.37)

Both teams to score 62.16% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.12% (

-0.53)

39.88% (

0.53)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.76% (

-0.56)

62.24% (

0.56)

FC Koln Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.1% (

1.33)

19.9% (

-1.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.97% (

2.11)

52.03% (

-2.11)

Schalke 04 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.61% (

-1.92)

22.39% (

1.92)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.1% (

-2.96)

55.89% (

2.96)

Score Analysis

FC Koln 40.67%

Schalke 04 35.57%

Draw 23.76%

FC Koln	Draw	Schalke 04
2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.41) 1-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.46) 2-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.59) 3-1 @ 4.68% ( 0.4) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.43) 4-1 @ 1.89% ( 0.23) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( 0.22) Other @ 3.12% Total : 40.67%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.11) 3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.76%	1-2 @ 8.06% ( -0.42) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.23) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.48) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( -0.46) 2-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.23) 0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.4) 1-4 @ 1.5% ( -0.27) 2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.22) Other @ 2.46% Total : 35.57%