Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 43.17%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.