Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.