Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 45.02%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.83%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.