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Champions League | Round of 16
Feb 16, 2021 at 8pm UK
Camp Nou
PL

Barcelona
1 - 4
PSG

Messi (27' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Mbappe (32', 65', 85'), Kean (70')
Gueye (20')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 47.32%. A win for Paris Saint-Germain had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.85%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Paris Saint-Germain win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.

Result
BarcelonaDrawParis Saint-Germain
47.32%21.25%31.43%
Both teams to score 70.24%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
71.26%28.74%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
50.34%49.66%
Barcelona Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.04%12.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.57%39.43%
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.7%19.31%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.94%51.06%
Score Analysis
    Barcelona 47.32%
    Paris Saint-Germain 31.43%
    Draw 21.25%
BarcelonaDrawParis Saint-Germain
2-1 @ 8.59%
3-1 @ 5.85%
2-0 @ 5.22%
1-0 @ 5.11%
3-2 @ 4.81%
3-0 @ 3.56%
4-1 @ 2.99%
4-2 @ 2.46%
4-0 @ 1.82%
4-3 @ 1.35%
5-1 @ 1.22%
5-2 @ 1.01%
Other @ 3.33%
Total : 47.32%
1-1 @ 8.41%
2-2 @ 7.07%
3-3 @ 2.64%
0-0 @ 2.5%
Other @ 0.64%
Total : 21.25%
1-2 @ 6.91%
0-1 @ 4.11%
2-3 @ 3.87%
1-3 @ 3.79%
0-2 @ 3.38%
0-3 @ 1.86%
2-4 @ 1.59%
1-4 @ 1.56%
3-4 @ 1.09%
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 31.43%

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