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Champions League | Round of 16
Mar 17, 2021 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
2 - 1
Lazio

Lewandowski (33' pen.), Maxim Choupo-Moting (73')
Goretzka (48')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Parolo (82')
Radu (26'), Acerbi (31'), Milinkovic-Savic (38'), Correa (70')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 65.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 12.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.63%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawLazio
65.8%22.19%12.01%
Both teams to score 37.52%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.4%57.6%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.63%78.37%
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.05%16.95%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.96%47.04%
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.18%54.82%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.23%87.78%
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 65.79%
    Lazio 12.01%
    Draw 22.19%
Bayern MunichDrawLazio
1-0 @ 16.49%
2-0 @ 14.63%
2-1 @ 8.8%
3-0 @ 8.66%
3-1 @ 5.21%
4-0 @ 3.84%
4-1 @ 2.31%
3-2 @ 1.56%
5-0 @ 1.36%
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 65.79%
1-1 @ 9.91%
0-0 @ 9.29%
2-2 @ 2.64%
Other @ 0.34%
Total : 22.19%
0-1 @ 5.59%
1-2 @ 2.98%
0-2 @ 1.68%
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 12.01%

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