Given the threat that the home side possess going forward, we would be surprised if Chelsea keep a clean sheet on Tuesday night. However, the visitors should have far too much quality in attack, leading us to predict a relatively comfortable win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 46.62%. A win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 28.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-0 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
-0.16) 
0.17) 
