With the visitors missing a couple of key players and likely to be forced into chasing the tie at some point, we expect Dinamo Zagreb to progress.
The Croatians have superior quality and experience at this level than their forthcoming opponents, and it would be a surprise if they do not use this to their advantage in front of a home crowd, having already secured an away victory against them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dinamo Zagreb win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 21.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 0-1 (7.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dinamo Zagreb would win this match.
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