Premier League | Gameweek 5

Aug 30, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

St Mary's Stadium

Southampton
2 - 1
Chelsea

Lavia (28'), Armstrong (45+1')
Salisu (53'), Ward-Prowse (64')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Sterling (23')
Pulisic (80')

Tuchel: 'It is too easy to confuse Chelsea'

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

Last Six:

Last Game: Southampton 0-1 Man Utd
Saturday, August 27 at 12.30pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
12	Crystal Palace	4	-2	4
13	Southampton	4	-3	4
14	Nottingham Forest	4	-3	4

Chelsea

Last Six:

Last Game: Chelsea 2-1 Leicester
Saturday, August 27 at 3pm in Premier League

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
5	Leeds United	4	3	7
6	Chelsea	4	-1	7
7	Newcastle United	4	2	6

We said: Southampton 1-1 Chelsea

Although Chelsea came through with three points at the weekend, they had to work with 10 men for over an hour. Also taking their less recovery time into consideration, we are backing Southampton to earn a share of the spoils, potentially even maximum points if they are more ruthless in the final third. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 68.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 13.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.75%) and 0-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Southampton win it was 2-1 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Chelsea
13.52% ( 0.04)	18.34% ( 0.06)	68.15% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 53.31% (

-0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.4% (

-0.18)

38.6% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.1% (

-0.19)

60.9% (

0.19)

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.47% (

-0.05)

40.53% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.87% (

-0.05)

77.13% (

0.05)

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.65% (

-0.07)

10.35% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

66.16% (

-0.17)

33.84% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Southampton 13.52%

Chelsea 68.15%

Draw 18.34%

Southampton	Draw	Chelsea
2-1 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.79% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.33% ( -0) 3-1 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 1.64% Total : 13.52%	1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 18.34%	0-2 @ 10.79% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.75% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 8.16% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 7.37% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.18% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 3.33% ( -0.01) 0-5 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 4.57% Total : 68.15%