Shamrock must stay in the contest on Tuesday if they are to stand a chance of progressing to the next round of the competition. Ludogorets will fancy their chances of winning the first leg, but we are expecting it to be a close affair in Razgrad.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Shamrock Rovers had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Shamrock Rovers win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ludogorets Razgrad would win this match.
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