SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ferencvaros win with a probability of 58.16%. A win for The New Saints had a probability of 21.23% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ferencvaros win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8%) and 1-0 (7.53%). The likeliest The New Saints win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ferencvaros would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ferencvaros | Draw | The New Saints |
58.16% ( 0.28) | 20.61% ( 0) | 21.23% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 61.93% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.84% ( -0.41) | 35.15% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.83% ( -0.46) | 57.16% ( 0.45) |
| Ferencvaros Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.03% ( -0.05) | 11.96% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.64% ( -0.11) | 37.35% ( 0.11) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.34% ( -0.49) | 29.65% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.3% ( -0.59) | 65.69% ( 0.59) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ferencvaros | Draw | The New Saints |
| 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 8% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.66% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 4.18% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.65% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.55% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.54% Total : 58.16% | 1-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.55% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.3% Total : 20.61% | 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 4.31% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.62% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.02% Total : 21.23% |
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