SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Lugano | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | St Gallen | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | FC Zurich | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Zurich win with a probability of 48.04%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 28.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Zurich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | FC Zurich |
28.57% ( -0.12) | 23.39% ( -0.28) | 48.04% ( 0.41) |
| Both teams to score 60.26% ( 0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.99% ( 1.24) | 41.01% ( -1.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.6% ( 1.25) | 63.4% ( -1.25) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.87% ( 0.55) | 27.13% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.48% ( 0.71) | 62.52% ( -0.71) |
| FC Zurich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.7% ( 0.63) | 17.3% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.35% ( 1.1) | 47.65% ( -1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qarabag FK | Draw | FC Zurich |
| 2-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 3% Total : 28.57% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.27)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 9.42% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.3)0-2 @ 7.22% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 5.51% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.6% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 2.42% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 1.85% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.98% Total : 48.04% |
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