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Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 12, 2022 at 5pm UK
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Qarabag FK
5 - 1
Lech Poznan

Kady (14', 74'), Ozobic (42'), Medina (56'), Huseynov (77')
Richard (19'), Medina (30'), Cafarquliyev (78'), Kady (89')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Velde (1')
Milic (55')

Form, Standings, Stats

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Qarabag FK 1-1 Lech Poznan (Lech Poznan win 2-1 on aggregate)

As both sides carry a goal threat and are used to taking the initiative, there could be opportunities at either end, following a relatively cagey first leg. The Polish champions should progress, but it may require a backs-to-the-wall effort to secure their passage to the second qualifying round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawLech Poznan
29.94% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01) 23.87%46.18% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 59.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.58%42.41% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)64.82% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.08% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)26.92% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.76% (-0.012 -0.01)62.24% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.42% (0.0080000000000098 0.01)18.58% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.15% (0.010000000000005 0.01)49.84% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 29.95%
    Lech Poznan 46.18%
    Draw 23.87%
Qarabag FKDrawLech Poznan
2-1 @ 7.25% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 6.56% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 4.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.17% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.04% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 29.95%
1-1 @ 11.04%
2-2 @ 6.1% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.87%
1-2 @ 9.3% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-1 @ 8.42% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 7.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 5.22% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 3.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 3.42%
1-4 @ 2.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 1.67% (0.002 0)
2-4 @ 1.44% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 46.18%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
Last Game: Qarabag FK 0-3 Marseille
Thursday, February 24 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Marseille 3-1 Qarabag FK
Thursday, February 17 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Basel 3-0 Qarabag FK
Thursday, December 9 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Qarabag FK 2-2 Omonia
Thursday, November 25 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Kairat 1-2 Qarabag FK
Thursday, November 4 at 3.30pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 0-2 Rangers
Thursday, December 10 at 5.55pm in Europa League
Last Game: Benfica 4-0 Lech Poznan
Thursday, December 3 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Standard Liege 2-1 Lech Poznan
Thursday, November 26 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Lech Poznan 3-1 Standard Liege
Thursday, November 5 at 5.55pm in Europa League
Last Game: Rangers 1-0 Lech Poznan
Thursday, October 29 at 8pm in Europa League


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