SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Lech Poznan |
29.94% ( -0.01) | 23.87% | 46.18% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 59.51% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.58% | 42.41% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.18% ( -0) | 64.82% ( 0) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.08% ( -0.01) | 26.92% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.76% ( -0.01) | 62.24% ( 0.01) |
| Lech Poznan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.42% ( 0.01) | 18.58% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.15% ( 0.01) | 49.84% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Lech Poznan |
| 2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.56% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.31% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.17% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.67% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.88% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.04% ( -0)Other @ 3.06% Total : 29.95% | 1-1 @ 11.04% 2-2 @ 6.1% ( -0)0-0 @ 5% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.87% | 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.08% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.98% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.42% 1-4 @ 2.2% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.67% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.44% ( 0)Other @ 3.46% Total : 46.18% |
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