Burnley have not claimed a competitive home win over Portsmouth since February 1982, but we think that they will end that winless run when they face a Pompey side that will be low on confidence after suffering consecutive home defeats.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Burnley in this match.
0.06) 
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