SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Burnley in this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Portsmouth |
49.98% ( 0.06) | 23.48% ( -0.02) | 26.54% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 58.27% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.1% ( 0.08) | 42.89% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.7% ( 0.08) | 65.3% ( -0.08) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.72% ( 0.05) | 17.28% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.38% ( 0.09) | 47.62% ( -0.09) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.44% ( 0.01) | 29.56% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.41% ( 0.01) | 65.59% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Portsmouth |
| 2-1 @ 9.59% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.97% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.87% 3-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.92% Total : 49.98% | 1-1 @ 10.92% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0)0-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.39% ( 0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.47% | 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.38% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0)Other @ 3.24% Total : 26.54% |
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