This is a difficult match to call, particularly with Birmingham continuing to impress despite the negative pre-season predictions. Although we fancy the visitors to have their moments in South Wales, Cardiff will want to bounce back from the embarrassment in midweek, something that we feel they will achieve in a hard-fought contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.16%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 31.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cardiff City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Cardiff City.
-0.04) 
0.03) 
