Derby
1 - 2
QPR

Lawrence (10')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Willock (50'), Gray (90')
Gray (90+1')

Preview

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Championship clash between Derby County and Queens Park Rangers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Derby County 1-1 Queens Park Rangers

While Derby have been effective in avoiding defeat this season, they have reached a point where only wins will do. That may prove difficult against a team of QPR's quality going forward, leading us to predict a share of the spoils in the East Midlands. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queens Park Rangers win with a probability of 40.57%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queens Park Rangers would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Queens Park Rangers
31.99%	27.44%	40.57%

Both teams to score 48.86%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.36%

56.64%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.39%

77.61%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.29%

32.71%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.74%

69.26%

Queens Park Rangers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.61%

27.39%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.14%

62.86%

Score Analysis

Derby County 31.99%

Queens Park Rangers 40.57%

Draw 27.44%

Derby County	Draw	Queens Park Rangers
1-0 @ 10.01% 2-1 @ 7.25% 2-0 @ 5.59% 3-1 @ 2.7% 3-0 @ 2.08% 3-2 @ 1.75% Other @ 2.61% Total : 31.99%	1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 8.96% 2-2 @ 4.69% Other @ 0.83% Total : 27.44%	0-1 @ 11.6% 1-2 @ 8.4% 0-2 @ 7.51% 1-3 @ 3.62% 0-3 @ 3.24% 2-3 @ 2.03% 1-4 @ 1.17% 0-4 @ 1.05% Other @ 1.95% Total : 40.57%