SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 50.24%. A win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.53%) and 0-2 (8.96%). The likeliest Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Burnley |
24.98% ( 0.17) | 24.78% ( -0.14) | 50.24% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 52.5% ( 0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.18% ( 0.71) | 49.82% ( -0.71) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.18% ( 0.63) | 71.82% ( -0.63) |
| Plymouth Argyle Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.49% ( 0.53) | 34.5% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.77% ( 0.56) | 71.22% ( -0.56) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.15% ( 0.27) | 19.84% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.07% ( 0.43) | 51.93% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Burnley |
| 1-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 3.88% 3-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.16% Total : 24.98% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.2)2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 9.53% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.96% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 5.14% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 4.83% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 1.95% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.85% Total : 50.24% |
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