We said: Preston North End 1-2 Middlesbrough
Scoring goals and being decisive has not come naturally to Middlesbrough this season, and it will leave Preston fancying their chances of an upset. However, Boro have been much more clinical of late, something which leads us to back a narrow victory for Wilder's side.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.9%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 1-0 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.