This has all the makings of a tense match for Boro, who will be wary of a Stoke side who are performing well away from home. However, Boro have generally been the masters of grinding out victories at the Riverside Stadium this season, and we are predicting another low-scoring win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 48.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 25.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.23%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Stoke City win it was 0-1 (8.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.

Result
Middlesbrough	Draw	Stoke City
48.51%	26.13%	25.35%

Both teams to score 48.79%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.15%

54.85%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.85%

76.15%

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.36%

22.63%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.74%

56.26%

Stoke City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.07%

36.93%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.28%

73.72%

Score Analysis

Middlesbrough 48.51%

Stoke City 25.35%

Draw 26.13%

Middlesbrough	Draw	Stoke City
1-0 @ 12.41% 2-0 @ 9.23% 2-1 @ 9.19% 3-0 @ 4.57% 3-1 @ 4.55% 3-2 @ 2.27% 4-0 @ 1.7% 4-1 @ 1.69% Other @ 2.91% Total : 48.51%	1-1 @ 12.37% 0-0 @ 8.36% 2-2 @ 4.58% Other @ 0.83% Total : 26.13%	0-1 @ 8.33% 1-2 @ 6.16% 0-2 @ 4.15% 1-3 @ 2.05% 2-3 @ 1.52% 0-3 @ 1.38% Other @ 1.77% Total : 25.35%