Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 44.18%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Stoke City had a probability of 27.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.77%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.03%), while for a Stoke City win it was 1-0 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
