Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Watford would win this match.
