SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Chengdu Qianbao had a probability of 36.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.1%). The likeliest Chengdu Qianbao win was 0-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chengdu Qianbao |
38.16% ( -0.09) | 25.26% ( -0.01) | 36.58% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 56.81% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.13% ( 0.04) | 46.87% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.87% ( 0.04) | 69.12% ( -0.04) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.8% ( -0.03) | 24.2% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.47% ( -0.04) | 58.53% ( 0.04) |
| Chengdu Qianbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.94% ( 0.07) | 25.05% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.27% ( 0.1) | 59.73% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chengdu Qianbao |
| 1-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.45% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.1% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.42% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 1.93% Total : 38.16% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.06% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.25% | 0-1 @ 8.39% ( 0) 1-2 @ 8.24% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.81% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0)0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 36.58% |
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