SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 52.57%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Cangzhou Mighty Lions had a probability of 23.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Cangzhou Mighty Lions win it was 1-0 (6.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
23.37% ( -0.2) | 24.06% ( -0.08) | 52.57% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 53% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.69% ( 0.16) | 48.31% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.54% ( 0.15) | 70.46% ( -0.14) |
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.9% ( -0.09) | 35.1% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.15% ( -0.1) | 71.85% ( 0.1) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.66% ( 0.17) | 18.34% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.56% ( 0.29) | 49.44% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cangzhou Mighty Lions | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 1-0 @ 6.74% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.03% Total : 23.37% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0)3-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.06% | 0-1 @ 10.91% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.69% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 9.26% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 5.48% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 5.24% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.32% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.22% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.35% Total : 52.56% |
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