Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shenzhen win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Guangzhou City had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shenzhen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.52%) and 0-2 (5.72%). The likeliest Guangzhou City win was 2-1 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shenzhen would win this match.
