Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Qingdao Jonoon had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.81%) and 0-2 (7.22%). The likeliest Qingdao Jonoon win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.

Result
Qingdao Jonoon	Draw	Beijing Guoan
30.02% ( -0.81)	24.24% ( 0.06)	45.74% ( 0.75)

Both teams to score 58.27% (

-0.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.94% (

-0.67)

44.06% (

0.67)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.55% (

-0.65)

66.45% (

0.66)

Qingdao Jonoon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.31% (

-0.86)

27.69% (

0.86)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.75% (

-1.12)

63.25% (

1.12)

Beijing Guoan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.58% (

0.05)

19.42% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.76% (

0.08)

51.24% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

Qingdao Jonoon 30.02%

Beijing Guoan 45.74%

Draw 24.23%

Qingdao Jonoon	Draw	Beijing Guoan
2-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.13) 1-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 1.9% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.87% Total : 30.02%	1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 9.27% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 7.22% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 5.07% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 2.08% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) 2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.14% Total : 45.74%