SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 30.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Changchun Yatai win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
46.08% ( -0.12) | 23.75% ( 0.01) | 30.16% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 60.08% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.28% ( 0) | 41.72% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.87% ( 0) | 64.12% ( -0) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.65% ( -0.05) | 18.34% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.55% ( -0.08) | 49.44% ( 0.08) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.57% ( 0.07) | 26.43% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.4% ( 0.1) | 61.59% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
| 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.97% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0)Other @ 3.57% Total : 46.08% | 1-1 @ 10.93% 2-2 @ 6.17% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.85% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.74% | 1-2 @ 7.28% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.29% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.29% Total : 30.16% |
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