SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wuhan Three Towns win with a probability of 46.8%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wuhan Three Towns win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (7.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wuhan Three Towns | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
46.8% ( -0.86) | 23.39% ( 0.08) | 29.8% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 61.11% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.74% ( 0.07) | 40.25% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.37% ( 0.07) | 62.63% ( -0.07) |
| Wuhan Three Towns Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.51% ( -0.31) | 17.48% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.02% ( -0.53) | 47.97% ( 0.53) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.06% ( 0.54) | 25.93% ( -0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.06% ( 0.73) | 60.93% ( -0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wuhan Three Towns | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 5.41% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.75% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.93% Total : 46.8% | 1-1 @ 10.67% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 7.2% ( 0.13) 0-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.38% Total : 29.8% |
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