SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 69.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Guangzhou had a probability of 12.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Guangzhou win it was 2-1 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guangzhou | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
12.82% ( -0.15) | 17.65% ( -0.06) | 69.52% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 53.72% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.94% ( -0.13) | 37.06% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.75% ( -0.14) | 59.25% ( 0.14) |
| Guangzhou Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.43% ( -0.32) | 40.56% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.83% ( -0.28) | 77.16% ( 0.28) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.39% ( 0.01) | 9.61% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 67.89% ( 0.03) | 32.11% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guangzhou | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 3.72% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 3.52% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.58% Total : 12.82% | 1-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 17.66% | 0-2 @ 10.69% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 9.13% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 8.35% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 7.54% ( -0)0-4 @ 4.89% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 4.41% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.4% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 2.29% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 2.07% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.17% Total : 69.51% |
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