Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai SIPG win with a probability of 40.34%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 35.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai SIPG win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.77%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai SIPG would win this match.