Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aruba win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Cayman Islands had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aruba win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Cayman Islands win was 1-0 (8.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aruba would win this match.
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