Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Valladolid win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Valladolid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
0.88) 
-0.88) 
