We said: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Valencia
Athletic ought to feel capable of going all the way in the Copa del Rey given the calibre of opponents they have already overcome, and Marcelino remains blessed with a near fully-fit squad.
Valencia's inconsistent patch will likely see them concede a narrow first-leg advantage to the hosts, leaving Bordalas's side with it all to do in the second leg.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 46.01%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
