The home side deserve a lot of respect for what they have achieved in the competition this season, but we are finding it difficult to back the third-tier club to go any further. Valencia will not be at full strength but should still have more than enough to progress to the quarter-finals of the competition this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 41.27%. A win for Atletico Baleares had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.09%). The likeliest Atletico Baleares win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Valencia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Valencia.
