We expect Rayo to showcase their top-flight quality and claim a comfortable victory, but even if Atletico Lugones suffer a heavy defeat, it will not stop Wednesday's contest from being an historic moment for the club.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 96.84%. A draw had a probability of 2.7% and a win for Atletico Lugones had a probability of 0.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-4 with a probability of 15.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (14.88%) and 0-5 (12.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (1.23%), while for an Atletico Lugones win it was 1-0 (0.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.07) 
