These are the type of matches that Real Sociedad will need to win if they are to finish in the top four this season, but Rayo are not losing games at the moment, and we are struggling to back the visitors considering their exertions in the Champions League. A draw would not be the worst result for Real Sociedad, and we are expecting the points to be shared here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 30.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.58%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (9.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-1) 
1.37) 
