Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 51.29%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.22%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 2-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
1.83) 
-2.09) 
