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Champions League | Group Stage
Nov 2, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Estadio Santiago Bernabeu
CL

Real Madrid
5 - 1
Celtic

Modric (6' pen.), Rodrygo (21' pen.), Asensio (51'), Junior (61'), Valverde (71')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Jota (84')
O'Riley (20'), Furuhashi (47')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Livingston 0-3 Celtic
Sunday, October 30 at 12pm in Scottish Premiership

We said: Real Madrid 2-0 Celtic

After a slight blip from Ancelotti's men, we expect a professional performance here to get the job done in the Champions League. Los Blancos need a win to secure top spot, while Celtic are playing for nothing but pride, so we can see a solid, if unspectacular, win for the talent-stacked hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 51.1%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Celtic had a probability of 24.18%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.75%), while for a Celtic win it was 0-1 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real MadridDrawCeltic
51.1% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 24.72% (0.0090000000000003 0.01) 24.18% (-0.012 -0.01)
Both teams to score 51.86% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.74% (-0.041000000000004 -0.04)50.26% (0.044999999999995 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.79% (-0.035 -0.04)72.21% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.33% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)19.67% (0.016000000000002 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.35% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)51.65% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Celtic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.56% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)35.44% (0.038000000000004 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.79% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)72.2% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Real Madrid 51.09%
    Celtic 24.18%
    Draw 24.71%
Real MadridDrawCeltic
1-0 @ 11.33% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.56% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 9.22% (0.0080000000000009 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 5% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-2 @ 2.69% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 2.11% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-0 @ 2.03%
4-2 @ 1.09% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.89%
Total : 51.09%
1-1 @ 11.75%
0-0 @ 6.97% (0.013 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.96% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-3 @ 0.93% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.71%
0-1 @ 7.23% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.1% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 3.75% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.11% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
0-3 @ 1.3% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.99%
Total : 24.18%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Girona
Sunday, October 30 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 3-2 Real Madrid
Tuesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-1 Sevilla
Saturday, October 22 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Elche 0-3 Real Madrid
Wednesday, October 19 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-1 Barcelona
Sunday, October 16 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Shakhtar 1-1 Real Madrid
Tuesday, October 11 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Livingston 0-3 Celtic
Sunday, October 30 at 12pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Celtic 1-1 Shakhtar
Tuesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Hearts 3-4 Celtic
Saturday, October 22 at 12.30pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Motherwell 0-4 Celtic
Wednesday, October 19 at 6.15pm in Scottish League Cup
Last Game: Celtic 6-1 Hibernian
Saturday, October 15 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Celtic 0-2 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, October 11 at 8pm in Champions League


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