Girona certainly know what it takes to beat Real Madrid, but we are finding it very difficult to back the visitors to pick up a positive result in this contest. Ancelotti's side will be fired up to recover from their first loss of the 2022-23 campaign, and we are expecting it to be a comfortable match for the champions.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 73.56%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 9.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.15%) and 3-0 (10.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.95%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.
-0.49) 
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