Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 38.86%. A win for Leganes had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.68%) and 2-1 (7.63%). The likeliest Leganes win was 0-1 (11.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
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