We said: Corinthians 2-1 Santos
Playing without a naturalised defender may have worked for Bustos against Bragantino, but they still allowed some scoring opportunities, while benefitting from the fact that Braga leave many gaps behind their fullbacks.
Peixe can expect less time in the final third against a Corinthians squad who close you down quickly and tend to capitalise on their opportunities.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 56.44%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Santos had a probability of 18.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.64%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (7.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.